Science and Values: The Battle Over Alaska's Predator Control

The Delicate Balance of Managing Moose and Bears

Wildlife Management Policy Debate Scientific Evidence

In the vast wilderness of Alaska, a quiet war is being waged over the future of the state's iconic wildlife. Here, science and values collide in a complex debate over how to manage predator-prey relationships, particularly when it comes to sustaining moose populations that many Alaskans rely on for food.

At the heart of this conflict lies Alaska's Intensive Management Law, a controversial policy that mandates boosting moose, caribou, and deer populations for human harvest, sometimes through aggressive predator control methods including the aerial gunning of wolves and bears 2 6 .

This approach represents a fundamental question: Should wildlife management prioritize human consumptive use above natural ecosystem balances? As one former official noted, the law essentially treats "moose and caribou like cattle that need to be farmed for hunters" 6 . With recent court challenges, shocking aerial gunning statistics, and passionate arguments on all sides, understanding the science and values driving these policies has never been more critical for anyone concerned about wildlife conservation and subsistence traditions.

Alaska's Intensive Management Law: The Foundation

1994

The legal bedrock for Alaska's current predator control approach dates back to 1994 when the state legislature passed the Intensive Management (IM) Law 2 6 .

Legal Mandate

This legislation requires the Alaska Board of Game to identify moose, caribou, and deer populations that are especially important as food sources for Alaskans and ensure these populations remain large enough to allow for adequate and sustained harvest 2 .

Legal Foundation

Based on Alaska Constitution's mandate that replenishable resources "shall be utilized, developed, and maintained on the sustained yield principle" 6 .

Management Tools

Includes restricting hunting seasons, improving wildlife habitat, and implementing predator control programs 2 .

Human Priority

Prioritizes "high or maximum sustained level of consumptive utilization for humans" according to then-Lt. Gov. Jack Coghill 6 .

The Scientific Premise of Predator Control

The biological rationale for predator control stems from research showing that wolves and bears are highly effective predators on moose, caribou, and deer 3 .

80%

Department studies indicate that in much of Alaska, predators often account for more than 80 percent of moose and caribou mortality in an average year 2 3 .

The ADF&G argues that when ungulate populations experience significant declines, they usually cannot recover sufficiently without first reducing predator numbers 3 .

"Hunting and trapping by themselves rarely reduce wolf numbers enough to allow a prey population to recover" 3
Key Concepts in Wildlife Management
Concept Definition Significance
Sustained Yield Managing resources to maintain stable populations over time 6 Core constitutional requirement with disputed interpretation
Maximum Sustained Yield Managing to provide high levels of human consumption 6 Basis for intensive management law
Intensive Management Process to increase ungulate numbers through regulations, habitat improvement, or predator control 2 Legal mandate when prey populations drop below objectives
Predator Control Direct reduction of predators to lower predation rates on prey species 1 Controversial tool used in intensive management

The Mulchatna Experiment: A Case Study in Predator Control

Perhaps the most illuminating contemporary case study in Alaska's predator control debate is the Mulchatna Caribou Herd program, which has significant implications for moose management as it employs similar methodologies 7 .

Program Methodology
  • Aerial gunning from helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft 7
  • Conducted during specific window (May 10-June 5) 7
  • Nearly 3,000 square miles in the Tikchik Basin 7
  • Removing all wolves, black bears, and brown bears encountered 7
  • Initial budget exceeding $415,000 of state funds 7
Results and Outcomes
94

Brown bears killed in 2023 7

81

Brown bears killed in 2024 4

17%

Caribou population increase 8

According to ADF&G, the western Mulchatna herd showed a 17% population increase following bear control efforts, with calf survival improving when bear numbers were reduced in calving areas 8 .

The Alaska Superior Court ruled in March 2025 that the original program was "unlawfully adopted and, therefore, void and without legal effect" due to procedural issues 4 . However, the Board of Game reinstated it weeks later via emergency regulation 4 .

Scientific Tools in Predator Management
Research Method Application Limitations in Current Practice
Aerial Population Surveys Estimating predator and prey populations across large areas Limited by weather, terrain, and funding constraints
Radio Telemetry/Collaring Tracking animal movements, survival rates, and mortality causes Partial data that may not represent entire populations
Population Modeling Projecting outcomes of management interventions Highly dependent on accurate input data
Calf Survival Studies Measuring specific impacts on recruitment Labor-intensive and provides limited context

The Scientific Disagreement: What Does the Evidence Really Show?

ADF&G Position

The ADF&G points to increased calf survival and herd growth as evidence of success 8 .

"Overwhelming evidence for the Mulchatna caribou herd, collected by the department since the program began in 2023, supports the conclusion that calf survival increased when bear numbers were reduced in calving areas" - Commissioner Doug Vincent-Lang 8
Opposing View

The Alaska Wildlife Alliance argues that "overwhelming evidence that predator control programs do not work to recover struggling moose and caribou populations" 7 .

They point to alternative studies, including one on moose harvests in GMU 13 and another on wolf predation on the Nushagak Peninsula caribou herd, that have shown reducing predators doesn't necessarily increase ungulates 7 .

Recent Predator Control Outcomes
Program/Area Predator Reduction Goals Documented Outcomes Reported Prey Response
Mulchatna (2023-2024) Not specifically quantified 175 brown bears, 19 wolves killed over two years 7 17% population increase in western herd 8
Unit 16 (Newly Authorized) 60% brown bears, 60-80% black bears, 73-80% wolves Program authorized but not yet implemented To be determined
Statewide Impact Programs occur on approximately 5-6% of Alaska's land area 1 3 Thriving overall wolf population (7,700-11,200 wolves) 3 Varies by specific area and conditions

Values in Conflict: The Human Dimension

Beyond the scientific debate, Alaska's predator control controversy ultimately revolves around competing values and worldviews. As Commissioner Vincent-Lang acknowledged, "Ultimately, wildlife management decisions are shaped not just by science but by values" 8 .

Subsistence Traditions

Many rural Alaskans depend on wild game meat as an essential food source, and the state legislature has recognized this importance through the Intensive Management Law 2 8 .

"Alaskans are more dependent on wild foods than any other state in the nation" 3

Conservation Values

Critics question whether humans should extensively intervene in natural predator-prey dynamics, particularly through methods like aerial gunning 6 7 .

The Alaska Wildlife Alliance argues that management decisions should follow "full due process and baseline data" rather than circumventing public input 4 .

Differing Definitions of Subsistence
State Law

Considers all residents subsistence users

Federal Law

Restricts this designation to rural residents with customary traditions 6

This creates tension between managing for widespread hunting opportunity versus specific cultural subsistence needs.

Conclusion: Navigating the Future

Science

While the Intensive Management Law mandates prioritizing human harvest, the biological effectiveness of predator control remains disputed.

Law

The Mulchatna case demonstrates both potential for short-term prey population responses and serious questions about long-term sustainability.

Values

Finding common ground requires transparent science, respectful dialogue, and adaptive approaches.

In the balance hang not just the futures of moose populations, but the predators that help define Alaska's wild character and the human traditions that depend on them.

References